The film industry continues to see steady holiday activity at the box office, especially as a significant portion of colleges—about 76%—are on break up through Friday, encouraging theaters to keep their doors open. As a result, major studios are tailoring their releases toward an older male demographic, with two notable new films opening this weekend: Greenland 2: Migration, a sequel co-produced by Lionsgate, STX, and Anton, and Primate, a horror film involving monkeys from Paramount in partnership with 18Hz.
Meanwhile, the highly anticipated James Cameron blockbuster Avatar: Fire and Ash is set to remain dominant in its fourth weekend, projected to make over $20 million. In comparison, Greenland 2 and Primate are both expected to earn between $8 million and $10 million each. Avatar: Fire and Ash, which has already surpassed the billion-dollar mark globally, has accumulated approximately $311.8 million in North America alone. The film continues to draw audiences into premium formats, such as IMAX, full 3D screenings, and immersive 4D, Screen-X, or D-Box experiences.
Don't overlook the strong performance of Greenland 2, which is showing in 2,700 theaters—a notably high number—thanks largely to Gerard Butler’s appeal among older male viewers. A year before, Butler’s Lionsgate release Den of Thieves: Pantera opened to around $15 million—just $200,000 shy of its predecessor’s gross in 2018. The first Greenland film remains popular on streaming services like HBO Max and has a production budget of $12 million, with roughly $20 million spent on domestic promotion and advertising. Lionsgate holds only the distribution rights within the United States for the sequel, directed by Ric Roman Waugh.
In Greenland 2, viewers follow the surviving Garrity family as they leave their Greenland bunker to navigate a treacherous journey across Europe's devastated, frozen landscape in search of safety. The movie, rated PG-13, starts preview screenings on Thursday at 2 p.m. and tends to appeal primarily to men over 25. Despite the solid prospects, it is currently tracking slightly behind the debut of Den of Thieves 2. The original Greenland movie was released during the late summer of 2020, amid ongoing pandemic restrictions, earning an impressive $53.2 million internationally and selling streaming rights to HBO Max for about $25 million—an attractive deal for independent films today, where securing pay-one agreements remains challenging. As of now, no critic or audience scores are available on Rotten Tomatoes.
Primate, which marks the first theatrical release of Paramount’s genre-focused label 18Hz led by Walter Hamada, is directed and co-written by Johannes Roberts. The story follows a group of friends on a tropical vacation that takes a terrifying turn when one of their monkeys loses control. The film gained notable attention at Fantastic Fest in September and currently boasts a high 90% freshness rating on Rotten Tomatoes. Playing across 2,900 theaters, previews are scheduled to begin Thursday at 7 p.m. Its primary audience is men over 25, although it trails behind Neon’s The Monkey, a horror film about banana-eating animals from last year, which debuted with a $14 million opening. Internationally, Primate will launch in 26 territories this week, including Mexico, with later openings in France, Australia, Germany, Italy, Brazil, and the UK scheduled for late January and early February.
Several other new releases are hitting theaters this weekend. The dramedy "Is This Thing On?" directed by Bradley Cooper and starring Will Arnett, Laura Dern, and Cooper himself, centers on a man navigating divorce by finding refuge in stand-up comedy. It is debuting across 1,200 screens and has received positive feedback, with 86% approval from critics and 88% from viewers on Rotten Tomatoes. Although it has grossed about $1 million over 18 days in 33 theaters, expectations are modest for its box office run this weekend.
Additionally, Angel Studios’ Arabic-language drama I Was a Stranger, featuring Omar Sy and Jay Abdo, is screening in 1,400 theaters. Another limited release is the debut thriller Dead Man’s Wire by director Gus Van Sant, opening in 14 select theaters in major cities like New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, and others. This film, inspired by the 1977 hostage crisis, stars Bill Skarsgård, Dacre Montgomery, Cary Elwes, Myha’la, Coleman Domingo, and Al Pacino, and boasts a high 97% critic rating on Rotten Tomatoes. It was acquired in the mid-seven-figure range, promising a gripping story about an eccentric outlaw hero emerging from a hostage-related standoff.
And here’s where the real debate begins—while Avatar continues to dominate and legacy franchises hold their ground, do the newer, niche, and genre-specific films truly have a chance to challenge the blockbuster giants? Or will the traditional studio releases keep monopolizing the box office? What are your thoughts—are we heading toward a future dominated by high-budget sequels and franchise stalwarts, or is there space for innovative films to break through and reshape audience preferences? Share your perspectives below.
